The Nikkei average is down 5% since last Tuesday to include the 575 pt loss overnight and the DJIA is down 4% and is slated to open lower by almost 100 more pts. European markets are down 1.5 - 2.0% and perhaps are looking for some direction from the US markets which open in an hour and 15 minutes.
A few things to note... Dell took a big hit last week because they rely on corporate purchases for the bulk of their revenue. Hmmm, Generally speaking US companies are making money and LOTS of it but they aren't spending on information technology??? That's not a good sign my friends.
When corporations reduce or stop spending resources on their future it means that they are nervous about the future. No need to make capital expenditures if the business will not be there to benefit from it.
Another point which may be reflected in the US but is definately more worrysome in the asian markets is sub prime lending. Japan for years now has had very very low interest rates. Right now for their best customers I believe it intrest rates are at .25%. Yes, that decimal point is in the right place. Companies borrow at that rate and then use the procedes to fund sub prime borrowing. That's a hell of a payoff when you borrow at or near .25% and lend that at 10% or higher.
Monday, March 05, 2007
Friday, March 02, 2007
Perhaps Some Flooding Is In Order
from www.susquehannafloodforecasting.org
The Susquehanna River Basin is one of the most flood-prone areas in the nation
The Susquehanna River Basin is one of the most flood-prone watersheds in the entire nation. The main stem of the Susquehanna and its many tributaries drain 27,510 square miles of New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland.
Since the early 1800s, the main stem of the Susquehanna has flooded every 20 years on average. Even the Native Americans who once lived in the area told of frequent floods. The Susquehanna Basin also is vulnerable to frequent, localized flash floods every year. These flash floods, usually affecting smaller tributaries, can occur with little advance warning.
Tropical storm Agnes in 1972 caused the worst recorded flooding in the Basin in June 1972. The flooding caused 72 deaths and $2.8 billion in damage. Flood levels exceeded the record levels of the 1936 flood by as much as six feet in some places. It was the nation's most costly natural disaster until Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992.
In all, 1,160 of the 1,400 communities in the river basin have some residents who live in flood-prone areas. For these residents, flood warning and flood management and protection are of utmost concern.
We're safe, we live on a hill probably .5 miles from the river and 100+ ft high but I can see where and how alot of damage would be done.
The national weather service has monitoring sites all along the river and a check of the site this morning shows that just 15 miles or so upriver at Williamsport the river is near flood stage.
The river has been iced over for weeks now which I thought was interesting and had been meaning to take some photos of it but never got around to it. I will be out and about today and will take my camera with me just in case. We are expecting rain until early this afternoon so we may see some flooding.
The photo below is an example of how bad it can get and this is just up the road.
The Susquehanna River Basin is one of the most flood-prone areas in the nation
The Susquehanna River Basin is one of the most flood-prone watersheds in the entire nation. The main stem of the Susquehanna and its many tributaries drain 27,510 square miles of New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland.
Since the early 1800s, the main stem of the Susquehanna has flooded every 20 years on average. Even the Native Americans who once lived in the area told of frequent floods. The Susquehanna Basin also is vulnerable to frequent, localized flash floods every year. These flash floods, usually affecting smaller tributaries, can occur with little advance warning.
Tropical storm Agnes in 1972 caused the worst recorded flooding in the Basin in June 1972. The flooding caused 72 deaths and $2.8 billion in damage. Flood levels exceeded the record levels of the 1936 flood by as much as six feet in some places. It was the nation's most costly natural disaster until Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992.
In all, 1,160 of the 1,400 communities in the river basin have some residents who live in flood-prone areas. For these residents, flood warning and flood management and protection are of utmost concern.
We're safe, we live on a hill probably .5 miles from the river and 100+ ft high but I can see where and how alot of damage would be done.
The national weather service has monitoring sites all along the river and a check of the site this morning shows that just 15 miles or so upriver at Williamsport the river is near flood stage.
The river has been iced over for weeks now which I thought was interesting and had been meaning to take some photos of it but never got around to it. I will be out and about today and will take my camera with me just in case. We are expecting rain until early this afternoon so we may see some flooding.
The photo below is an example of how bad it can get and this is just up the road.
Thursday, March 01, 2007
The Doom And Gloom Report - Stock Market Correction or Crash???
It started Tuesday early Tuesday morning with the Shanghai Index dropping a whopping 10%. If you look at the graph on the link you will see this drop was preceded by a rise of 100% since September 2006. Yes, I did say 100%....from 150 to over 300 before this drop.
Markets around the globe followed suit but not quite as severely. Here in the US the DJ Industrials fell by over 520 pts...regained some but ended well off the highs for the day.
So yesterday if you watched the reporting on tv about this analyst after analyst was pretty much unfazed saying that the markets were all up (although not enough in my opinion) so that was really nothing to worry about.
Or was it??
Finally I heard something that went along my line of thinking around 3:30 pm yesterday which was a broker with 20+ years of experience was concerned with the half hearted rally. He stated that the lack of real positive gains yesterday (DJIA ended up 50+ pts)...something like gaining back 200 so pts was a real concern.
The financial markets have a psychology to them. Terminology is used to describe markets much in the same manner as you would people. It makes sense in that markets are driven by people with hopes, fears, insecurities, etc. So when you have a drop of 4% as we did Tuesday and we only gain back less than 1/2 of 1%....let's just say that there are more people who are nervous about the future as it concerns stocks than those people who not.
Last night the Nikkei Index opened higher but not much and this morning at 6:30 am EST the European markets were up but only less than 1/2 %. The Nikkei in Japan ended down another .86% and a look at the European markets before 9am EST show them down another 1% - 2%. Meanwhile here in the US the S&P futures went from +4 around 7am to -16 with just another 38 minutes to markets open.
Look for a big drop right off the start in the DJIA of 100+ pts.
Look for a knee jerk reaction in the 5-15 min period after the opening bell in either direction. If you don't see the market rebound significantly in the next 1 hour or so it may be a bumpy ride. It will mean that people (markets) don't see the low prices as a buying opportunity and that there is more low to be reached. More sellers than buyers....not good.
Good Luck
9:34 am DJIA -200+ pts
Markets around the globe followed suit but not quite as severely. Here in the US the DJ Industrials fell by over 520 pts...regained some but ended well off the highs for the day.
So yesterday if you watched the reporting on tv about this analyst after analyst was pretty much unfazed saying that the markets were all up (although not enough in my opinion) so that was really nothing to worry about.
Or was it??
Finally I heard something that went along my line of thinking around 3:30 pm yesterday which was a broker with 20+ years of experience was concerned with the half hearted rally. He stated that the lack of real positive gains yesterday (DJIA ended up 50+ pts)...something like gaining back 200 so pts was a real concern.
The financial markets have a psychology to them. Terminology is used to describe markets much in the same manner as you would people. It makes sense in that markets are driven by people with hopes, fears, insecurities, etc. So when you have a drop of 4% as we did Tuesday and we only gain back less than 1/2 of 1%....let's just say that there are more people who are nervous about the future as it concerns stocks than those people who not.
Last night the Nikkei Index opened higher but not much and this morning at 6:30 am EST the European markets were up but only less than 1/2 %. The Nikkei in Japan ended down another .86% and a look at the European markets before 9am EST show them down another 1% - 2%. Meanwhile here in the US the S&P futures went from +4 around 7am to -16 with just another 38 minutes to markets open.
Look for a big drop right off the start in the DJIA of 100+ pts.
Look for a knee jerk reaction in the 5-15 min period after the opening bell in either direction. If you don't see the market rebound significantly in the next 1 hour or so it may be a bumpy ride. It will mean that people (markets) don't see the low prices as a buying opportunity and that there is more low to be reached. More sellers than buyers....not good.
Good Luck
9:34 am DJIA -200+ pts
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